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Geopolitics Weigh on Sentiment

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Pre-market futures are back down this morning, keeping the tone of a flattish trading week in positive territory but off Tuesday afternoon’s highs. The Dow is -271 points at this hour, -0.55%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both -0.31% — -22 points and -84 points, respectively. The small-cap Russell 2000 is currently -2 points, -0.06%.

The head of the U.S. Navy is stepping down “effective immediately” as skirmishes continue in the Strait of Hormuz today. It’s tempting to blame these occurrences on the temporary setback in equities futures, but the complexities in the Iran war continue to mount. We’re supposedly in a cease-fire position, but the Strait remains blocked by both Iranian and U.S. forces. It may be a while before all this is sorted out.

Weekly Jobless Claims Tick Up, Still in Good Shape

Thursday morning brings us the latest Initial Jobless Claims numbers, which ticked up to 214K from the expected 212K, and up a tad from the slightly upwardly revised 208K the prior week. From the December holiday season until now, we’ve definitely seen a step down in weekly jobless claims, below 220K. That said, this is the second week in a row on new claims increases.

Continuing Claims are also up two straight weeks, to 1.821 million from 1.809 million reported a week ago. These are still levels not seen since the lows back in September of 2024, so while jobless claims are flowing up slightly, they are still at rates consistent with a healthy job market. We know from other employment data, however, that this is not necessarily the case.

Q1 Earnings Update: TSLA, AAL, AXP & More

After yesterday’s close, Tesla (TSLA - Free Report)  posted surprises on both top and bottom lines for its Q1, with earnings of $0.41 per share beating the Zacks consensus by a solid nickel, and up nicely from the $0.27 per share reported in the year-ago quarter. This marks the third quarter in the past four where Tesla has beaten earnings estimates.

Revenues of $22.39 billion in the quarter came in ahead of expectations by +2.12%, and beyond the $19.34 billion reported a year ago. The European market has been good for electric vehicles (EVs), both with Tesla and Chinese EV makers. However, paying for xAI is taxing Tesla’s numbers, and as a result shares are trading down -3% ahead of the open.

Mostly we saw earnings beats for the companies reporting this morning. American Airlines (AAL - Free Report)  reported a 5-cent better-than-expected loss to -$0.40 per share in the quarter. American Express (AXP - Free Report)  posted a +6% earnings beat to $4.28 per share. NextEra Energy (NEE - Free Report)  saw profits go up to $1.09 per share — an +11% beat, while Honeywell (HON - Free Report)  and Union Pacific Railway (UNP - Free Report)  outpaced expectations by +6% and +2.8%, respectively.

After today’s close, we’ll hear from Intel (INTC - Free Report)  and gold miner Newmont Corp. (NEM - Free Report) , among several others. The heart of Q1 earnings season is here!

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